This article appeared in Real Clear World on September 30, 2014
President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Narendra Modi met for the first time earlier this evening in Washington DC. Three successive American presidents – Clinton, Bush, Obama – and two successive Indian Prime Ministers – Vajpayee, Singh – have pushed for an improvement in ties between their countries. While Indians have called it a “natural” partnership, Americans have referred to it as the defining partnership of the twenty-first century. Will this meeting be able to provide the boost that this relationship needs?
On his visit to India in November 2010, President Obama stated that the United States “will not simply be cheering you on from the sidelines. We will be right there with you, shoulder to shoulder. Because we believe in the promise of India. And we believe that the future is what we make it.” For Indians Obama’s speech was an acknowledgement of Indian history and an appreciation of the independent path India took towards prosperity. There was optimism about growth in India-US bilateral trade as well as deepening in defense cooperation. The two countries share similar threats from terrorism, have a common desire to defend the domains of cyber and outer space and take a similar view of the global security architecture.
However, in the last few years these high hopes failed to materialize. India’s economic growth slowed down, the dream of large Indian purchase of American equipment was not fulfilled and there was resurgence of the latent Nehruvian suspicion of American intentions. Developments in the neighborhood too played a role. Continued American dependence on and military aid to Pakistan deepened Indian wariness about American intentions.
The US-China-India triangle is also critical in ties between the two countries. For India, China is both a neighbor with whom India has a conflict-ridden relationship as well as a major economic partner. While India would not like to antagonize China, both countries vie for leadership of Asia and seek their legitimate place at the high table. What India fears is a world where China is one of the superpowers and here discussions between Presidents Obama and Hu about a potential G-2 – US and China being the two super powers or global players – only led to misgivings on the Indian side.
Mr Modi’s visit to the US has been marked by a pitch at three constituencies: the Indian-American diaspora, the American business class and his constituency back home. For the Indian American diaspora he has promised lifelong visas and a reduction in bureaucracy. For the American corporate sector with whom he has set up a series of individual and group meetings he is promising reduction of red tape as well as potential incentives. For his constituency back home his speeches talk about India’s great past, its demographic dividend, the need to improve sanitation, provide clean water and boost tourism to boost local incomes.
While Mr Modi seeks to boost India’s economic growth and hence seeks investment and support from the US, it is not yet clear whether he will tackle those specific issues which have led to frictions between India and the US, like intellectual property rights and India’s nuclear liability law among others. Further, Mr Modi’s ‘Make in India’ policy means that his government seeks to boost Indian manufacturing though it would also welcome joint production by American and Indian manufacturers. In the foreign security arena, how far will India see eye-to-eye with the US on issues like Iran and Syria too is yet to be seen.